This weekend, the Red Sox and Yankees face off for a crucial 3 game series at Fenway Park. The Red Sox will have either a 4 or 5 game lead over the Yankees going into it, depending on whether the Yankees win or lose tonight at the Mets. Though the Yankees have a 7-5 advantage in the season series, the Red Sox have won 4 of the last 7, including taking 2 of 3 last weekend at Yankee Stadium. No matter what happens, with a lot of talk about the rivalry being renewed with all the young talent on both teams, there should be a great buzz in the air at Fenway. With 2 of 3 games last weekend going right down to the wire, fans of both teams should be in for a treat. Here, I give my analysis of the pitching match-ups, some questions/ keys I have going into the series, and ultimately, the prediction of who will win it.
Pomeranz (12-4, 3.39 era) vs. Montgomery (7-6, 3.94 era), Friday, 7:10 P.M.
This is possibly the most interesting pitching match-up, with both players coming off pretty solid outings in the last series. Pomeranz went 6 2/3 innings while giving up 7 hits and 3 earned runs in a win Saturday vs. the Yankees, while Montgomery went 5 1/3 innings while giving up just 2 hits and 1 earned run in a no decision vs. the Sox Sunday night, despite some hard hit balls for outs. Both pitchers have relatively similar stats this year and each had success vs. their rival the last time out, making this the toughest one to call as far as the advantage. If I had to give a slight advantage, it would be to Pomeranz, as the Sox are 15-8 in his starts this year, while the Yankees have gone 9-13 in Montgomery’s starts.
Sale (14-4, 2.51 era) vs. Sabathia (9-5, 4.05 era), Saturday, 7:10 P.M.
This is another intriguing match-up. While Sale has pitched very well in 3 starts vs. the Yankees this year, giving up just 3 earned runs, he has yet to earn a win, with the Sox scoring 4 runs total in those 3 games. In a dominating performance Sunday night, Sale registered 12 strikeouts in 7 innings against the Yankees while giving up just 1 earned run and 4 hits. Sabathia has been dominant against the Sox this year, beating them in both starts and giving up no runs. The Sox lost those games by a total of 11-0.
I would give the advantage to Sale here. Although it is possible he may not be quite as dominant the 3rd time around against the Yankees, Sabathia is just coming off the DL. That alone is cause to believe he won’t be able to replicate his first two starts against the Red Sox. Sabathia has struggled some against the Red Sox in previous years and I have a feeling the 3rd time this year will be the charm for the Sox against him. For reference, I had a feeling Luis Severino, who had been on fire, was due for a bad start. Last Saturday, he gave up 10 runs to the Sox. I also had a feeling the Sox were due to win a Sale start vs. the Yankees after losing the first 2, which they did on Sunday night. Here’s to hoping I’m right again.
Gray (7-7, 3.37 era) vs. TBD, Sunday, 1:35 P.M.
This one most likely favors the Yankees, depending on who the Sox start. Sonny Gray, who’s having a pretty decent year, has gone 6 starts in a row pitching at least 6 innings and giving up 2 or fewer earned runs. He’s allowed no runs in 2 of those starts. Doug Fister, coming off a rough outing on Monday, is a likely candidate to start, but the Sox aren’t sure whether he will or not.
Rick Porcello would also make sense since he would have 5 days rest coming off a start Tuesday. Although Porcello has been shaky in some outings, with a 7-14 record overall, he has gone 3-0 in August while striking out 19 batters and giving up 10 earned runs. While Porcello has been a far cry from last year’s Cy Young performance, he has showed signs he may be turning the corner. If the Sox do start Porcello, I feel they have a much better chance to win the game than if they started Fister. However, no matter who pitches, the Sox have shown an ability to come back and have produced some late inning magic this year, with 9 walk off wins.
Food For Thought:
Don’t Judge Me?
Everyone knows Aaron Judge started off the season on a tear, batting .329 with 30 home runs and 66 RBI. After the All- Star break, however, he’s been a different story, batting just .185. The pitchers adjusted to him and he is now in the midst of another historic run: 33 games in a row with a strikeout, the most ever in a single season. However, Judge has hit 2 home runs in the last 3 games, including a 457 foot bomb last night. He’s gone 4 for 13 in those 3 games, possibly showing signs he may be turning a corner. That could be bad news for the Red Sox. If Judge does turn things on this series, it could really spark the Yankees. Although he has been held in check this year vs. the Sox so far, with only one home run in the 12 meetings, it is only a matter of time before he does some damage. Could this be the series? We shall see.
Baby Sox Mania?
We all know about the Baby Bombers, but the Red Sox have some young talent of their own. When Rafael Devers hit a home run off Aroldis Chapman in the 9th inning to tie the game, everyone in the stadium, including the announcers, were shocked. The home run sparked the Sox to a 3-2 win in 10 innings. Devers has batted .348 with 6 home runs and 13 RBI in 18 games this year, showing no signs of being fazed by the MLB. Another hero of the series last weekend in New York was Andrew Benintendi, who has been on fire in August, batting .372 with 5 HR and 12 RBI in the last couple weeks. 3 of those home runs and 9 of those RBI came against the Yankees last weekend.
With a walk off hit last night, Mookie Betts is showing some signs he could have a big series. Xander Bogaerts also may be turning a corner, with a home run in the 9th inning last night, along with 3 hits on Tuesday night. If those four young guns can continue hitting well, the Sox will have a great chance to take this series.
The Sox will take two out of 3. Now, obviously I am a Red Sox fan, so this could be taken with a grain of salt. However, the Sox do, I feel, have the edge in 2 of the 3 pitching match-ups. That, combined with the fact that they have an AL best 38-21 home record and the Yankees are 29-33 on the road, should be reason to believe they can take the series. Even though these 3 games arguably mean more to the Yankees, there has been some real magic this year at Fenway Park, reminiscent of 2013.